August 29, 2025

Population Study Finds Vastly Increased ADHD Medication Prescribing is Associated With Declining Overall Risk Reduction Benefits

The Background: 

Randomized clinical trials have shown ADHD medications are effective in reducing core ADHD symptoms. Moreover, large observational studies indicate that these medications are associated with lower risks of real-world outcomes, including injuries, crime, transport crashes, suicide attempts, and unnatural-cause mortality. 

Sweden’s ADHD medication use has soared. From 2006 to 2020, children’s use rose almost fivefold, and adults' use more than tenfold. This places Sweden among the highest globally in ADHD prescriptions. 

Research indicates that rising prescription rates are due to changes in diagnostic criteria and their interpretation, parental perception, and greater awareness of ADHD, rather than an actual increase in its prevalence. 

Sweden has a single-payer health insurance system that covers virtually its entire population, as well as a system of national registers that link health care records to other population databases.  

The Study:

A research team based in Sweden used that data to explore how the impact of ADHD medication on self-harm, injuries, traffic crashes, and crime has evolved with the dramatic increase in ADHD prescription rates. The team hypothesized that effects would decrease as medications were prescribed to a broader group of patients, including those with fewer impairments and risky behaviors who might not derive as much benefit from pharmacotherapy. 

The team identified all individuals aged 4 to 64 who were prescribed ADHD medication and living in Sweden in the fifteen years from 2006 through 2020. From this base cohort, they selected four specific cohorts for self-harm, unintentional injury, traffic crashes, and crime, consisting of individuals who experienced at least one relevant event during the study period. 

They used a self-controlled case series (SCCS) design to explore the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes. This approach allows individuals to serve as their own controls, accounting for confounders like genetics, socioeconomic status, or other constant characteristics during follow-up. 

A non-treatment period was defined as a gap of 30 days or more between two consecutive treatment periods. To examine the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes, the team divided follow-up time into consecutive periods for each individual. A new period began after a treatment switch. They estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare the outcome event rates during medicated periods with non-medicated periods for the same individual. 

The team examined how ADHD medication outcomes varied with prescription prevalence across three periods: 2006-2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-2020, during which ADHD medication use continuously increased. 

The overall cohort encompassed almost a quarter million ADHD medication users: just over 57,000 for 2006-2010, just over 127,000 for 2011-2015, and slightly over 200,000 for 2016-2020. 

The Results:

ADHD medication use was linked to significantly lower rates of all studied outcomes during the study period. However, as prescription rates increased five to tenfold in the population, the strongest association for reduction in self-harm was observed between 2006 to 2010 (23% reduction in incidence rate) and was slightly reduced (below 20%) in the two more recent periods, though this change was not statistically significant.  

On the other hand, there was a significant decreasing trend in the reduction of incidence rate ratios for unintentional injury, with a 13% reduction in incidence rate in 2006-2010 decreasing over the two more recent periods to half that amount, 7%. For traffic crashes, a 29% reduction in incidence rate significantly diminished by more than half, to 13%. For crime, a 27% reduction in incidence rate from medication use significantly declined to 16%. 

When considering methylphenidate prescriptions only, these effects were partially attenuated for crime. A 28% reduction in the incidence rate for crime in 2006-2010 dropped to 19% in the two most recent periods, but the trend was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences from the results in the larger cohort in any of the other categories.   

The Interpretation:

These outcomes were consistent with the team’s hypothesis. The researchers concluded, “While ADHD medications are consistently associated with reduced risk of serious real-world outcomes, the magnitude of these associations have decreased over time alongside rising prescription rates. This underscores the importance of continuously evaluating medication use in different patient populations.” 

Lin Li, David Coghill, Arvid Sjölander, Honghui Yao, Le Zhang, Ralf Kuja-Halkola, Isabell Brikell, Paul Lichtenstein, Brian M. D’Onofrio, Henrik Larsson, and Zheng Chang, “Increased Prescribing of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Medication and Real-World Outcomes Over Time,” JAMA Psychiatry (2025), https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2025.1281.

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What is Evidenced-Based Medicine?

What is Evidenced-Based Medicine?

With the growth of the Internet, we are flooded with information about attention deficit hyperactivity disorder from many sources, most of which aim to provide useful and compelling "facts" about the disorder.  But, for the cautious reader, separating fact from opinion can be difficult when writers have not spelled out how they have come to decide that the information they present is factual. 

My blog has several guidelines to reassure readers that the information they read about ADHD is up-to-date and dependable. They are as follows:

Nearly all the information presented is based on peer-reviewed publications in the scientific literature about ADHD. "Peer-reviewed" means that other scientists read the article and made suggestions for changes and approved that it was of sufficient quality for publication. I say "nearly all" because in some cases I've used books or other information published by colleagues who have a reputation for high-quality science.

When expressing certainty about putative facts, I am guided by the principles of evidence-based medicine, which recognizes that the degree to which we can be certain about the truth of scientific statements depends on several features of the scientific papers used to justify the statements, such as the number of studies available and the quality of the individual studies. For example, compare these two types of studies.  One study gives drug X to 10 ADHD patients and reported that 7 improved.  Another gave drug Y to 100 patients and a placebo to 100 other patients and used statistics to show that the rate of improvement was significantly greater in the drug-treated group. The second study is much better and much larger, so we should be more confident in its conclusions. The rules of evidence are fairly complex and can be viewed at the Oxford Center for Evidenced Based Medicine (OCEBM;http://www.cebm.net/).


The evidenced-based approach incorporates two types of information: a) the quality of the evidence and b) the magnitude of the treatment effect. The OCEBM levels of evidence quality are defined as follows (higher numbers are better:

  1. Mechanism-based reasoning.  For example, some data suggest that oxidative stress leads to ADHD, and we know that omega-3 fatty acids reduce oxidative stress. So there is a reasonable mechanism whereby omega-3 therapy might help ADHD people.
  2. Studies of one or a few people without a control group, or studies that compare treated patients to those that were not treated in the past.

Non-randomized, controlled studies.    In these studies, the treatment group is compared to a group that receives a placebo treatment, which is a fake treatment not expected to work.  

  1. Non-randomized means that the comparison might be confounded by having placed different types of patients in the treatment and control groups.
  2. A single randomized trial.  This type of study is not confounded.
  3. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials. This means that many randomized trials have been completed and someone has combined them to reach a more accurate conclusion.

It is possible to have high-quality evidence proving that a treatment works but the treatment might not work very well. So it is important to consider the magnitude of the treatment effect, also called the "effect size" by statisticians. For ADHD, it is easiest to think about ranking treatments on a ten-point scale. The stimulant medications have a quality rating of 5 and also have the strongest magnitude of effect, about 9 or 10.Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation 'works' with a quality rating of 5, but the score for the magnitude of the effect is only 2, so it doesn't work very well. We have to take into account patient or parent preferences, comorbid conditions, prior response to treatment, and other issues when choosing a treatment for a specific patient, but we can only use an evidence-based approach when deciding which treatments are well-supported as helpful for a disorder.

April 23, 2021

ADHD medication and risk of suicide

ADHD Medication and Risk of Suicide

A Chinese research team performed two types of meta-analyses to compare the risk of suicide for ADHD patients taking ADHD medication as opposed to those not taking medication.

The first type of meta-analysis combined six large population studies with a total of over 4.7 million participants. These were located on three continents - Europe, Asia, and North America - and more specifically Sweden, England, Taiwan, and the United States.

The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be about a quarter less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p = 0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). There were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications produced divergent outcomes. A meta-analysis of four population studies covering almost 900,000 individuals found stimulant medications to be associated with a 28 percent reduced risk of suicide. On the other hand, a meta-analysis of three studies with over 62,000 individuals found no significant difference in suicide risk for non-stimulant medications. The benefit, therefore, seems limited to stimulant medication.

The second type of meta-analysis combined three within-individual studies with over 3.9 million persons in the United States, China, and Sweden. The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be almost a third less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were again barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p =0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). Once again, there were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced the sample size and made results non-significant.

Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications once again produced divergent outcomes. Meta-analysis of the same three studies found a 25 percent reduced risk of suicide among those taking stimulant medications. But as in the population studies, a meta-analysis of two studies with over 3.9 million persons found no reduction in risk among those taking non-stimulant medications.

A further meta-analysis of two studies with 3.9 million persons found no reduction in suicide risk among persons taking ADHD medications for 90 days or less, "revealing the importance of duration and adherence to medication in all individuals prescribed stimulants for ADHD."

The authors concluded, "exposure to non-stimulants is not associated with a higher risk of suicide attempts. However, a lower risk of suicide attempts was observed for stimulant drugs. However, the results must be interpreted with caution due to the evidence of heterogeneity ..."

December 13, 2021

Unmedicated Adult ADHD Linked to Dementia in Population Study

Background:

Noting that “the association between adult ADHD and dementia risk remains a topic of interest because of inconsistent results,” an Israeli study team tracked 109,218 members of a nonprofit Israeli health maintenance organization born between 1933 and 1952 who entered the cohort on January 1, 2003, without an ADHD or dementia diagnosis and were followed up to February 28, 2020. 

Israeli law forbids nonprofit HMOs from turning anyone away based on demographic factors,  health conditions, or medication needs, thereby limiting sample selection bias.  

The estimated prevalence of dementia in this HMO, as diagnosed by geriatricians, neurologists, or psychiatrists, is 6.6%. This closely matches estimates in Western Europe (6.9%) and the United States (6.5%). 

Method:

The team considered, and adjusted for, numerous covariates: age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, depression, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, traumatic brain injury, migraine, mild cognitive impairment, psychostimulants. 

With these adjustments, individuals diagnosed with ADHD were almost three times as likely to be subsequently diagnosed with dementia as those without ADHD. Men with ADHD were two and a half times more likely to be diagnosed with dementia, whereas women with ADHD were over three times more likely, than non-ADHD peers. 

More concerning still, persons with ADHD were 5.5 times more likely to be subsequently diagnosed with early onset dementia, as opposed to 2.4 times more likely to be diagnosed with late onset dementia. 

On the other hand, the team found no significant difference in rates of dementia between individuals with ADHD who were being treated with stimulant medications and individuals without ADHD. Those with untreated ADHD had three times the rate of dementia. The team nevertheless cautioned, “Due to the underdiagnosis of dementia as well as bidirectional misdiagnosis, this association requires further study before causal inference is plausible.” 

Conclusions and Relevance:

This study reinforces existing evidence that adult ADHD is associated with an increased risk of dementia. Notably, the increased risk was not observed in individuals receiving psychostimulant medication, however the mechanism behind this association is not clear.

These findings underscore the importance of reliable ADHD assessment and management in adulthood. They also highlight the need for further study into the link between stimulant medications and the decreased risk of dementia.

 

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February 25, 2025

Taiwan Nationwide Population Study Concludes Dopaminergic ADHD Medications Reduce Risk of Myopia

The Background:

Myopia is a growing global health concern linked to conditions like macular degeneration, glaucoma, and retinal detachment. Its prevalence has surged in recent decades; by 2050, an estimated 5 billion people will have myopia. The increase is especially marked in Asia – a survey in Taiwan reports that 84% of students aged 15 to 18 are myopic, with 24% severely affected. 

Dopamine is an important neurotransmitter in the retina, involved in eye development, visual signaling, and refractive changes. The dopamine hypothesis, suggesting that retinal dopamine release helps prevent myopia, has emerged as a leading theory of myopia control. 

Most studies show ADHD is highly heritable, often involving dopamine system genes. ADHD is strongly associated with dopaminergic abnormalities, especially in dopamine transporter function and release dynamics. 

Medications for ADHD, like methylphenidate, atomoxetine, and clonidine, help regulate dopamine to reduce symptoms.  

The Study:

Given dopamine’s critical involvement in both ADHD and myopia, a Taiwanese research team hypothesized that medications for ADHD that influence dopaminergic pathways may have a significant effect on myopia risk.  

To evaluate this hypothesis, the team conducted a nationwide cohort study using data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI) program, which covers 99% of the nation’s 23 million residents and provides access to comprehensive eye care and screenings. Taiwan requires visual acuity screenings beginning at age four, with annual examinations for school-aged children to promote the early detection of visual anomalies such as myopia.  

Furthermore, ADHD medication and diagnosis are tracked through compulsory diagnostic codes. This permits an accurate assessment of the effects of dopaminergic medications on myopia risk. 

Propensity score allocation using a multivariable logistic regression model was applied to reduce bias from confounding influences, pairing cohorts based on similar scores. 

The Results: 

Comparing 133,945 individuals with ADHD with an equal number without ADHD, untreated ADHD was associated with a 22% greater risk of myopia.  

However, after adjusting for covariates (gender, age, insured premium, comorbidities, location, and urbanization level), the ADHD cohort receiving medication treatment showed a 39% decreased risk of myopia relative to the untreated ADHD cohort. 

Narrowing this further to the ADHD cohort receiving dopaminergic medications reduced the risk of myopia by more than half (52%) relative to the untreated ADHD cohort.  

Treatment with two dopaminergic medications reduced the risk by well over two-thirds (72%) relative to the untreated ADHD cohort. 

There were no significant differences between methylphenidate, atomoxetine, and clonidine. Each reduced risk by about 50%. 

The team did not directly compare the ADHD cohort receiving dopaminergic medications with the non-ADHD cohort. But if there were 122 cases of myopia in the ADHD cohort for every 100 cases in the non-ADHD cohort, and dopaminergic medications halved the cases in the ADHD cohort to about 60, that would represent a roughly 40% reduction in myopia risk relative to the non-ADHD cohort. 

The team concluded, “our research indicates that pharmacologically treated ADHD children have a reduced risk of myopia. Conversely, untreated ADHD children are at a heightened risk relative to those without ADHD. Moreover, the cumulative effects of ADHD medications were found to notably decrease myopia incidence, emphasizing the protective influence of dopaminergic modulation in these interventions.” 

The Take-Away:

Children with untreated ADHD are more likely to develop myopia, but those receiving dopaminergic medications had a substantially lower risk. The findings suggest that ADHD medications may help protect against myopia by boosting dopamine signaling. More research is needed before firmly drawing this conclusion, but this research could open the door to new approaches for preventing myopia in at-risk children.

December 8, 2025

Two New Meta-analyses Point to Benefits of Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation

Background: 

ADHD treatment includes medication, behavioral therapy, dietary changes, and special education. Stimulants are usually the first choice but may cause side effects like appetite loss and stomach discomfort, leading some to stop using them. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is effective but not always sufficient on its own. Research is increasingly exploring non-drug options, such as transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), which may boost medication effectiveness and improve results. 

What is tDCS?

tDCS delivers a weak electric current (1.0–2.0 mA) via scalp electrodes to modulate brain activity, with current flowing from anode to cathode. Anodal stimulation increases neuronal activity, while cathodal stimulation generally inhibits it, though effects vary by region and neural circuitry. The impact of tDCS depends on factors such as current intensity, duration, and electrode shape. It targets cortical areas, often stimulating the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex for ADHD due to its role in cognitive control. Stimulation of the inferior frontal gyrus has also been shown to improve response inhibition, making it another target for ADHD therapy. 

There is an ongoing debate about how effective tDCS is for individuals with ADHD. One study found that applying tDCS to the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex can help reduce impulsivity symptoms in ADHD, whereas another study reported that several sessions of anodic tDCS did not lead to improvements in ADHD symptoms or cognitive abilities.  

New Research:

Two recent meta-analyses have searched for a resolution to these conflicting findings. Both included only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using either sham stimulation or a waitlist for controls. 

Each team included seven studies in their respective meta-analyses, three of which appeared in both. 

Both Wang et al. (three RCTs totaling 97 participants) and Wen et al. (three RCTs combining 121 participants) reported very large effect size reductions in inattention symptoms from tDCS versus controls. There was only one RCT overlap between them. Wang et al. had moderate to high  variation (heterogeneity) in individual study outcomes, whereas Wen et al. had virtually none. There was no indication of publication bias. 

Whereas Wen et al.’s same three RCTs found no significant reduction in hyperactivity/impulsivity symptoms, Wang et al. combined five RCTs with 221 total participants and reported a medium effect size reduction in impulsivity symptoms. This time, there was an overlap of two RCTs between the studies. Wen et al. had no heterogeneity, while Wang et al. had moderate heterogeneity. Neither showed signs of publication bias.  

Turning to performance-based tasks, Wang et al. reported a medium effect size improvement in attentional performance from tDCS over controls (three RCTs totaling 136 participants), but no improvement in inhibitory control (five RCTs combining 234 persons). 

Wang et al. found no significant difference in adverse events (four RCTs combining 161 participants) between tDCS and controls, with no heterogeneity. Wen et al. found no significant difference in dropout rates (4 RCTs totaling 143 individuals), again with no heterogeneity.  

Wang et al. concluded, “tDCS may improve impulsive symptoms and inattentive symptoms among ADHD patients without increasing adverse effects, which is critical for clinical practice, especially when considering noninvasive brain stimulation, where patient safety is a key concern.” 

Wen et al. further concluded, “Our study supported the use of tDCS for improving the self-reported symptoms of inattention and objective attentional performance in adults diagnosed with ADHD. However, the limited number of available trials hindered a robust investigation into the parameters required for establishing a standard protocol, such as the optimal location of electrode placement and treatment frequency in this setting. Further large-scale double-blind sham-controlled clinical trials that include assessments of self-reported symptoms and performance-based tasks both immediately after interventions and during follow-up periods, as well as comparisons of the efficacy of tDCS targeting different brain locations, are warranted to address these issues.” 

The Take-Away: 

Previous studies have shown mixed results on the benefits of this therapy on ADHD. These new findings suggest that tDCS may hold some real promise for adults with ADHD. While the technique didn’t meaningfully shift hyperactivity or impulsivity, it was well-tolerated and showed benefit, especially in self-reported symptoms. However, with only a handful of trials to draw from, it would be a mistake to suggest tDCS as a standard treatment protocol. Larger, well-designed studies are the next essential step to clarify where, how, and how often tDCS works best.

Meta-analysis Reports Executive Function Gains from Exercise Interventions for ADHD

Background:

The development of ADHD is strongly associated with functional impairments in the prefrontal cortex, particularly the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which plays a key role in maintaining attention and controlling impulses. Moreover, imbalances in neurotransmitters like dopamine and norepinephrine are widely regarded as major neurobiological factors contributing to ADHD. 

Executive functions are a group of higher-order cognitive skills that guide thoughts and actions toward goals. “Executive function” refers to three main components: inhibitory control, working memory, and cognitive flexibility. Inhibitory control helps curb impulsive actions to stay on track. Working memory allows temporary storage and manipulation of information for complex tasks. Cognitive flexibility enables switching attention and strategies in varied or demanding situations. 

Research shows that about 89% of children with ADHD have specific executive function impairments. These difficulties in attention, self-control, and working memory often result in academic and social issues. Without timely intervention, these issues can lead to emotional disorders like depression, anxiety, and irritability, further affecting both physical health and social development. 

Currently, primary treatments for executive function deficits in school-aged children with ADHD include medication and behavioral or psychological therapies, such as Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT). While stimulant medications do improve executive function, not all patients are able to tolerate these medications. Behavioral interventions like neurofeedback provide customized care but show variable effectiveness and require specialized resources, making them hard to sustain. Safer, more practical, and long-lasting treatment options are urgently needed. 

Exercise interventions are increasingly recognized as a safe, effective way to improve executive function in children with ADHD. However, systematic studies on school-aged children remain limited.  

Moreover, there are two main scoring methods for assessing executive function: positive scoring (higher values mean better performance, such as accuracy) and reverse scoring (lower values mean better performance, such as reaction time). These different methods can affect how results are interpreted and compared across studies. This meta-analysis explored how different measurement and scoring methods might influence results, addressing important gaps in the research. 

The Study:

Only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving school-aged children (6–13 years old) diagnosed with ADHD by DSM-IV, DSM-5, ICD-10, ICD-11, or the SNAP-IV scale were included. Studies were excluded if the experimental group received non-exercise interventions or exercise combined with other interventions. 

Cognitive Flexibility 

Using positive scoring, exercise interventions were associated with a narrowly non-significant small effect size improvement relative to controls (eight RCTs, 268 children). Using reverse scoring, however, they were associated with a medium effect size improvement (eleven RCTs, 452 children). Variation (heterogeneity) in individual RCT outcomes was moderate, with no sign of publication bias in both instances. 

Inhibitory Control 

Using positive scoring, exercise interventions were associated with a medium effect size improvement relative to controls (ten RCTs, 421 children). Using reverse scoring, there was an association with a medium effect size improvement (eight RCTs, 265 children). Heterogeneity was moderate with no sign of publication bias in either case. 

Working Memory 

Using positive scoring, exercise interventions were associated with a medium effect size improvement relative to controls (six RCTs, 321 children). Using reverse scoring, the exercise was associated with a medium effect size improvement (five RCTs, 143 children). Heterogeneity was low with no indication of publication bias in both instances. 

Conclusion:

The team concluded, “Exercise interventions can effectively improve inhibitory control and working memory in school-aged children with ADHD, regardless of whether positive or reverse scoring methods are applied. However, the effects of exercise on cognitive flexibility appear to be limited, with significant improvements observed only under reverse scoring. Moreover, the effects of exercise interventions on inhibitory control, working memory, and cognitive flexibility vary across different measurement paradigms and scoring methods, indicating the importance of considering these methodological differences when interpreting results.” 

Although this work is intriguing, it does not show that exercise significantly improves the symptoms of ADHD in children. This means that exercise, although beneficial for many reasons, should not be viewed as a replacement for evidence-based treatments for the disorder.

December 3, 2025