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August 29, 2025
The Background:
Randomized clinical trials have shown ADHD medications are effective in reducing core ADHD symptoms. Moreover, large observational studies indicate that these medications are associated with lower risks of real-world outcomes, including injuries, crime, transport crashes, suicide attempts, and unnatural-cause mortality.
Sweden’s ADHD medication use has soared. From 2006 to 2020, children’s use rose almost fivefold, and adults' use more than tenfold. This places Sweden among the highest globally in ADHD prescriptions.
Research indicates that rising prescription rates are due to changes in diagnostic criteria and their interpretation, parental perception, and greater awareness of ADHD, rather than an actual increase in its prevalence.
Sweden has a single-payer health insurance system that covers virtually its entire population, as well as a system of national registers that link health care records to other population databases.
The Study:
A research team based in Sweden used that data to explore how the impact of ADHD medication on self-harm, injuries, traffic crashes, and crime has evolved with the dramatic increase in ADHD prescription rates. The team hypothesized that effects would decrease as medications were prescribed to a broader group of patients, including those with fewer impairments and risky behaviors who might not derive as much benefit from pharmacotherapy.
The team identified all individuals aged 4 to 64 who were prescribed ADHD medication and living in Sweden in the fifteen years from 2006 through 2020. From this base cohort, they selected four specific cohorts for self-harm, unintentional injury, traffic crashes, and crime, consisting of individuals who experienced at least one relevant event during the study period.
They used a self-controlled case series (SCCS) design to explore the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes. This approach allows individuals to serve as their own controls, accounting for confounders like genetics, socioeconomic status, or other constant characteristics during follow-up.
A non-treatment period was defined as a gap of 30 days or more between two consecutive treatment periods. To examine the link between ADHD medication use and outcomes, the team divided follow-up time into consecutive periods for each individual. A new period began after a treatment switch. They estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to compare the outcome event rates during medicated periods with non-medicated periods for the same individual.
The team examined how ADHD medication outcomes varied with prescription prevalence across three periods: 2006-2010, 2011-2015, and 2016-2020, during which ADHD medication use continuously increased.
The overall cohort encompassed almost a quarter million ADHD medication users: just over 57,000 for 2006-2010, just over 127,000 for 2011-2015, and slightly over 200,000 for 2016-2020.
The Results:
ADHD medication use was linked to significantly lower rates of all studied outcomes during the study period. However, as prescription rates increased five to tenfold in the population, the strongest association for reduction in self-harm was observed between 2006 to 2010 (23% reduction in incidence rate) and was slightly reduced (below 20%) in the two more recent periods, though this change was not statistically significant.
On the other hand, there was a significant decreasing trend in the reduction of incidence rate ratios for unintentional injury, with a 13% reduction in incidence rate in 2006-2010 decreasing over the two more recent periods to half that amount, 7%. For traffic crashes, a 29% reduction in incidence rate significantly diminished by more than half, to 13%. For crime, a 27% reduction in incidence rate from medication use significantly declined to 16%.
When considering methylphenidate prescriptions only, these effects were partially attenuated for crime. A 28% reduction in the incidence rate for crime in 2006-2010 dropped to 19% in the two most recent periods, but the trend was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences from the results in the larger cohort in any of the other categories.
The Interpretation:
These outcomes were consistent with the team’s hypothesis. The researchers concluded, “While ADHD medications are consistently associated with reduced risk of serious real-world outcomes, the magnitude of these associations have decreased over time alongside rising prescription rates. This underscores the importance of continuously evaluating medication use in different patient populations.”
Lin Li, David Coghill, Arvid Sjölander, Honghui Yao, Le Zhang, Ralf Kuja-Halkola, Isabell Brikell, Paul Lichtenstein, Brian M. D’Onofrio, Henrik Larsson, and Zheng Chang, “Increased Prescribing of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Medication and Real-World Outcomes Over Time,” JAMA Psychiatry (2025), https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2025.1281.
With the growth of the Internet, we are flooded with information about attention deficit hyperactivity disorder from many sources, most of which aim to provide useful and compelling "facts" about the disorder. But, for the cautious reader, separating fact from opinion can be difficult when writers have not spelled out how they have come to decide that the information they present is factual.
My blog has several guidelines to reassure readers that the information they read about ADHD is up-to-date and dependable. They are as follows:
Nearly all the information presented is based on peer-reviewed publications in the scientific literature about ADHD. "Peer-reviewed" means that other scientists read the article and made suggestions for changes and approved that it was of sufficient quality for publication. I say "nearly all" because in some cases I've used books or other information published by colleagues who have a reputation for high-quality science.
When expressing certainty about putative facts, I am guided by the principles of evidence-based medicine, which recognizes that the degree to which we can be certain about the truth of scientific statements depends on several features of the scientific papers used to justify the statements, such as the number of studies available and the quality of the individual studies. For example, compare these two types of studies. One study gives drug X to 10 ADHD patients and reported that 7 improved. Another gave drug Y to 100 patients and a placebo to 100 other patients and used statistics to show that the rate of improvement was significantly greater in the drug-treated group. The second study is much better and much larger, so we should be more confident in its conclusions. The rules of evidence are fairly complex and can be viewed at the Oxford Center for Evidenced Based Medicine (OCEBM;http://www.cebm.net/).
The evidenced-based approach incorporates two types of information: a) the quality of the evidence and b) the magnitude of the treatment effect. The OCEBM levels of evidence quality are defined as follows (higher numbers are better:
Non-randomized, controlled studies. In these studies, the treatment group is compared to a group that receives a placebo treatment, which is a fake treatment not expected to work.
It is possible to have high-quality evidence proving that a treatment works but the treatment might not work very well. So it is important to consider the magnitude of the treatment effect, also called the "effect size" by statisticians. For ADHD, it is easiest to think about ranking treatments on a ten-point scale. The stimulant medications have a quality rating of 5 and also have the strongest magnitude of effect, about 9 or 10.Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation 'works' with a quality rating of 5, but the score for the magnitude of the effect is only 2, so it doesn't work very well. We have to take into account patient or parent preferences, comorbid conditions, prior response to treatment, and other issues when choosing a treatment for a specific patient, but we can only use an evidence-based approach when deciding which treatments are well-supported as helpful for a disorder.
A Chinese research team performed two types of meta-analyses to compare the risk of suicide for ADHD patients taking ADHD medication as opposed to those not taking medication.
The first type of meta-analysis combined six large population studies with a total of over 4.7 million participants. These were located on three continents - Europe, Asia, and North America - and more specifically Sweden, England, Taiwan, and the United States.
The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be about a quarter less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p = 0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). There were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced sample size and made results non-significant.
Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications produced divergent outcomes. A meta-analysis of four population studies covering almost 900,000 individuals found stimulant medications to be associated with a 28 percent reduced risk of suicide. On the other hand, a meta-analysis of three studies with over 62,000 individuals found no significant difference in suicide risk for non-stimulant medications. The benefit, therefore, seems limited to stimulant medication.
The second type of meta-analysis combined three within-individual studies with over 3.9 million persons in the United States, China, and Sweden. The risk of suicide among those taking medication was found to be almost a third less than for unmediated individuals, though the results were again barely significant at the 95 percent confidence level (p =0.49, just a sliver below the p = 0.5 cutoff point). Once again, there were no significant differences between males and females, except that looking only at males or females reduced the sample size and made results non-significant.
Differentiating between patients receiving stimulant and non-stimulant medications once again produced divergent outcomes. Meta-analysis of the same three studies found a 25 percent reduced risk of suicide among those taking stimulant medications. But as in the population studies, a meta-analysis of two studies with over 3.9 million persons found no reduction in risk among those taking non-stimulant medications.
A further meta-analysis of two studies with 3.9 million persons found no reduction in suicide risk among persons taking ADHD medications for 90 days or less, "revealing the importance of duration and adherence to medication in all individuals prescribed stimulants for ADHD."
The authors concluded, "exposure to non-stimulants is not associated with a higher risk of suicide attempts. However, a lower risk of suicide attempts was observed for stimulant drugs. However, the results must be interpreted with caution due to the evidence of heterogeneity ..."
Noting that “the association between adult ADHD and dementia risk remains a topic of interest because of inconsistent results,” an Israeli study team tracked 109,218 members of a nonprofit Israeli health maintenance organization born between 1933 and 1952 who entered the cohort on January 1, 2003, without an ADHD or dementia diagnosis and were followed up to February 28, 2020.
Israeli law forbids nonprofit HMOs from turning anyone away based on demographic factors, health conditions, or medication needs, thereby limiting sample selection bias.
The estimated prevalence of dementia in this HMO, as diagnosed by geriatricians, neurologists, or psychiatrists, is 6.6%. This closely matches estimates in Western Europe (6.9%) and the United States (6.5%).
The team considered, and adjusted for, numerous covariates: age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, depression, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, traumatic brain injury, migraine, mild cognitive impairment, psychostimulants.
With these adjustments, individuals diagnosed with ADHD were almost three times as likely to be subsequently diagnosed with dementia as those without ADHD. Men with ADHD were two and a half times more likely to be diagnosed with dementia, whereas women with ADHD were over three times more likely, than non-ADHD peers.
More concerning still, persons with ADHD were 5.5 times more likely to be subsequently diagnosed with early onset dementia, as opposed to 2.4 times more likely to be diagnosed with late onset dementia.
On the other hand, the team found no significant difference in rates of dementia between individuals with ADHD who were being treated with stimulant medications and individuals without ADHD. Those with untreated ADHD had three times the rate of dementia. The team nevertheless cautioned, “Due to the underdiagnosis of dementia as well as bidirectional misdiagnosis, this association requires further study before causal inference is plausible.”
Conclusions and Relevance:
This study reinforces existing evidence that adult ADHD is associated with an increased risk of dementia. Notably, the increased risk was not observed in individuals receiving psychostimulant medication, however the mechanism behind this association is not clear.
These findings underscore the importance of reliable ADHD assessment and management in adulthood. They also highlight the need for further study into the link between stimulant medications and the decreased risk of dementia.
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Struggling to get the care you need to manage your ADHD? Support The ADHD Evidence Project and get this step-by-step guide to getting the treatment you deserve: https://bit.ly/41gIQE9
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The Background:
Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) themselves show higher rates of ADHD. Because ADHD is partly heritable (meaning genes contribute to the condition), some of the increased ADHD seen in children of mothers with PCOS could come from shared genetic factors. In other words, a mother’s and her child’s increased risk might sometimes reflect common genes rather than an effect of the pregnancy itself.
Beyond genetics, growing evidence points to maternal metabolic problems during pregnancy as another important risk factor for neurodevelopmental outcomes. PCOS is one of these conditions and is considered both potentially modifiable (treatable or manageable) and biologically plausible as a contributor to risk. PCOS affects an estimated 5–10% of women of reproductive age worldwide and is characterized by signs such as hyperandrogenism (higher-than-normal levels of “male” hormones), insulin resistance (poorer ability to use the hormone insulin, which can affect blood sugar and metabolism), and chronic low-grade inflammation.
However, studies to date have not all reached the same conclusions. Some research suggests the association between maternal PCOS and offspring ADHD is stronger for girls, while other studies did not analyze results by child sex. Methodological differences make it harder to draw clear conclusions.
The Study:
It’s important to note that the studies included in this meta-analysis were observational (cohort studies and case-control studies). Observational studies can identify associations (that two things occur together) but cannot prove that one causes the other. A cohort study follows people over time, and a case-control study compares people with a condition to similar people without it.
The pooled results came from six studies that together included almost 1.4 million mother–child pairs and that adjusted for confounders (other factors that might influence the result, such as maternal age or socioeconomic status). After statistical adjustment, children of mothers with PCOS had about 40% greater odds of ADHD than children of mothers without PCOS. The analysis reported no evidence of publication bias (no clear sign that only positive studies were published) and zero heterogeneity (the results were consistent across the studies).
There was no meaningful difference in results between cohort and case-control studies, and the meta-analysis did not find a significant difference in the association when comparing male and female offspring.
The Take-Away:
The research team concluded that this large-scale synthesis found an association between maternal PCOS and higher odds of ADHD and other neuropsychiatric conditions in children. They suggested that children born to mothers with PCOS may benefit from developmental monitoring to identify and address problems early, while emphasizing that causal relationships have not been established. They called for further studies to confirm these findings and to investigate the biological and environmental mechanisms that might explain the association. Indeed, because women with PCOS show higher rates of ADHD than other women, we need genetically informed research designs to see if the reported association is confounded.
The Background:
Food insecurity is a widespread public‑health problem. Food insecurity refers to limited or uncertain access to enough safe, nutritious food. This term is used to describe households that sometimes or often can’t afford enough food or can only buy cheaper, less‑healthy options.
In the United States, almost eleven million children and teens (14%) lived in food‑insecure households in 2019. By 2023, the share of households with food‑insecure children and adolescents was estimated to have risen to about 18%.
Food insecurity is linked to worse physical health in children, including conditions like anemia (low red‑blood‑cell count), asthma, and delays in physical or mental development. It is also associated with problems in thinking and conduct (for example, aggressive behavior, anxiety, depression, and trouble concentrating or sitting still).
Those thinking and behavior problems can look a lot like ADHD (persistent patterns of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity. This can make it hard for clinicians to tell whether symptoms come from ADHD itself, from the stress of poverty and food insecurity, or a mix of both. That overlap can complicate diagnosis and sometimes lead to misdiagnosis.
Smaller recent studies have looked at mental‑health links and found higher odds of ADHD and other mental‑health conditions among food‑insecure children aged 5–11 years. In one set of findings, moderate food insecurity was associated with 50% greater odds of an ADHD diagnosis and severe food insecurity with about 67% greater odds relative to food‑secure children.
The Study:
Because many past studies looked at single risk factors or only measured symptom severity, fewer investigations have focused specifically on household food insecurity as it relates to actual ADHD diagnoses and how that might matter for care. To address that gap, researchers used multiple years (2016–2022) of data from the U.S. National Survey of Children’s Health (NSCH). This survey is designed to be nationally representative and asks parents about their child’s health, including whether a doctor or other clinician has diagnosed ADHD.
The study included 232,571 children and adolescents (ages 3–17) and used statistical methods to adjust for other factors that could affect ADHD risk. Those factors included the child’s sex and race/ethnicity; the mother’s age; family income expressed as a percentage of the federal poverty level (a government measure used to classify income groups); the highest level of parent education; adverse childhood experiences (such as exposure to abuse, household substance use, or parental separation); birthweight (for example, low birthweight); and not getting enough sleep. Adjusting for these variables helps isolate the association between food insecurity and ADHD, though it cannot prove cause and effect.
The Results:
In this large, nationally representative sample, the researchers found a clear dose–response relationship: as the level of household food insecurity increased, so did the odds of a child having a clinician‑diagnosed ADHD (as reported by parents). In other words, greater food insecurity was linked to a higher likelihood of ADHD.
Compared with children in households that “could always afford to eat good, nutritious meals” (the reference group), the study found the following increases in odds of ADHD: children in households that “could always afford enough to eat but not always the kinds of food we should eat” had about 30% greater odds; children in households that sometimes “could not afford enough to eat” had about 55% greater odds; and children in households that often “could not afford enough to eat” had about 80% greater odds. (Saying “30% greater odds,” etc., means the odds were 1.30, 1.55, and 1.80 times those of the reference group, respectively — this describes a relative increase, not the absolute percentage of children with ADHD.)
The Take-Away:
The authors conclude that household food insecurity was associated with higher odds of parent‑reported clinician‑diagnosed ADHD in a dose‑response pattern. They suggest that reducing food insecurity (for example, ,by improving access to nutritious food and combining nutritional supports with mental‑health care) may help lower ADHD risk or reduce symptoms in some children. Reducing food insecurity should be a priority for society, but it is premature to conclude it will reduce the risk for ADHD. We know that parents with ADHD are more likely to lose their jobs and have lower incomes compared to parents with ADHD. That might create food insecurity for their children who we know are at high risk for ADHD from genetic studies.
The Background:
Many studies have tried to determine whether exercise improves executive function in children and adolescents with ADHD, but their conclusions have not always agreed. To bring the evidence together more clearly, the research team re-analyzed the available randomized controlled trials using a statistical approach designed to handle the kinds of data common in this field.
Executive functions are skills that help us control attention and behavior. The three core components are inhibitory control (the ability to stop or override impulses), working memory (holding and manipulating information in mind), and cognitive flexibility (switching between tasks or perspectives). Because a single study often reports multiple tests that tap these different skills, one study can contribute several related results (called effect sizes). Traditional meta-analysis typically treats each effect size as independent; when they are actually correlated, that can bias the combined estimate or force reviewers to discard useful data.
To avoid those problems, the team used a three-level meta-analysis. In this model, variance in the data is separated into three sources:
(1) sampling variance: the random error in each measured effect
(2) within-study variance: differences between multiple effect sizes reported in the same study
(3) between-study variance: differences in effects from one study to another
Accounting for all three levels makes it possible to include every eligible effect size from each study, which preserves information and statistical power and reduces the risk that correlations among effect sizes will overstate results.
The Study:
The review focused on long-term exercise interventions and also tested whether certain factors might change (or moderate) the effects. These potential moderators included participant age, which executive-function subcomponent was measured, the type of exercise, how long each session lasted, the total length of the intervention, and how often sessions occurred.
To be included, studies had to be randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of children or adolescents aged 6–18 diagnosed with ADHD. RCTs randomly assign participants to an intervention or a comparison group and are considered a strong design for testing cause-and-effect. The exercise programs had to be structured and last at least six weeks. Comparison groups varied by study and could include usual care, medication, sedentary activities, health education, waiting lists, or everyday life without the specific exercise program. Fifteen studies including 658 participants met these criteria.
The Results:
The three-level meta-analysis showed that long-term exercise interventions were associated with moderate-to-strong improvements in overall executive function. When statistical outliers were removed, the result remained positive: 13 RCTs with 598 participants showed moderate improvements. In plain terms, this suggests improvements that are noticeable and meaningful on average, not just tiny changes that are unlikely to matter in daily life.
Those moderate gains appeared across all three executive-function domains (inhibitory control, working memory, and cognitive flexibility, meaning the benefits were not limited to a single cognitive skill. The authors also examined exercise type:
“Open-skill” activities, which require reacting to changing situations (for example, many team sports, martial arts sparring, or racket sports), produced moderate-to-large improvements.
“Closed-skill” activities, which are more predictable and repetitive (for example, running or stationary cycling), showed only small, non-significant improvements in this analysis.
The review also found dose-related patterns. Interventions lasting at least twelve weeks were about three times more effective than interventions of six to twelve weeks, and sessions longer than an hour were about twice as effective as shorter sessions. Benefits were largest among adolescents aged 13 and older.
These patterns suggest that longer, more intensive programs, and those that involve open-skill activities, may produce larger gains. However, the authors caution that the overall certainty of the evidence was low. “Low certainty” means that limitations in the available studies (for example, small sample sizes, variability in methods, or possible bias) make it difficult to be confident that the observed effects will hold up exactly the same way in future research. Some subgroup findings (age, intervention duration, and others) were based on only a small number of effect sizes, so those moderator results should be treated as exploratory rather than definitive.
The Take-Away:
In short, this three-level meta-analysis suggests that regular, structured exercise (particularly longer programs and open-skill activities) may help improve executive functions in children and adolescents with ADHD. The evidence is promising but not yet strong enough to be considered conclusive, and the authors recommend more, larger randomized trials to confirm specifically which types and doses of exercise are most effective. Moreover, neither this meta-analysis or others show that exercise can replace standard treatments for reducing the core symptoms of ADHD (inattention, hyperactivity, impulsivity).
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